Views: 5
Israel must prepare for confrontation with Iran after Trump inauguration.
The renewed entry of President Trump into the White House signals a new era in Washington, and hopefully in US-Israel relations.
The first and most critical and significant issue on the agenda should be the joint and determined fight against Iran’s nuclear program, its regional behavior, and its support for terrorist organizations all over the region.
In recent days, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), addressed the possibility of attacking nuclear facilities. He argued that Iran must reach understandings with the Trump administration regarding its nuclear activities to avoid another military confrontation in the Middle East.
This is a very mistaken and dangerous approach, especially considering Iran’s current fragile state: the collapse of its plan to create a “ring of fire” around Israel, the severe damage to its strategic air defense systems, its ballistic missile production capabilities, and the ongoing collapse of its economy.
Despite these challenges, Khamenei continues to advance his ambitious plan to destroy Israel using conventional means under a “nuclear umbrella” by 2040, as indicated by the countdown clock in Palestine Square in Tehran.
When President Biden was elected, about 4 years ago, he than announced his intention to re-enter negotiations with Iran. His advisors even prepared a white paper that examined a quick return to the flawed 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). Naturally, Israel was very concerned about this approach because the agreement, which Trump wisely withdrew from in 2018, gave Iran a dangerous and guaranteed path to a nuclear weapon.
Luckily for Israel and the world, Iran felt very empowered against Biden’s weak and hesitant administration and quickly revealed its true intentions by violating the agreement in numerous ways, without any real response from Biden’s US or Europe, aside from a few weak statements unaccompanied by actions.
Essential to avoid a repeat
Israel must now demonstrate unity and explain why even considering to start negotiations with Iran is extremely dangerous. It is crucial to ensure that this message is echoed by Middle Eastern partners, the Abraham Accords signatories, and Saudi Arabia, all of whom share similar concerns about Iran and its nuclear intentions. The US ignored these concerns in the past, it is essential to avoid a repeat.
Iran’s hostile activities increased significantly following Biden’s election (and not after Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement, as many mistakenly believe).
Since Biden’s election, the regime has intensified its nuclear extortion, enriched hundreds of kilograms of uranium to high levels (60%), developed, produced, and installed advanced centrifuges in underground facilities, built new facilities, and taken other dangerous steps, even in the weaponization program activities, under a dual use purpose excuse.
The IAEA and some of its board member states has published particularly harsh reports on Iran’s nuclear activities over the years, revealing clear violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and other agreements Iran has signed, as well as violations of the nuclear agreement. These reports were not backed by sanctions or concrete actions.
The current status of the nuclear program does not allow for a new agreement that could be sustainable. Everyone desires a good agreement, but the devil is in the details. A good agreement should not permit Iran to continue its nuclear activities at all, and there is no chance Iran would agree to such terms. The agreement cannot resemble or even be similar to the previous deal with minor improvements. There is no justification for the absurdity of a “civilian nuclear program” in underground facilities.
Any solution must address all three elements of Iran’s nuclear program: fissile material, weapons systems, and delivery means. Discussions can only begin after Iran returns to the state it should have been in if it had adhered to all Security Council resolutions imposed on it after its major deception and unauthorized nuclear facility construction nearly two decades ago.
Fissile materials (uranium and plutonium) and the technology to produce them must be entirely prohibited on Iranian soil and monitored by the IAEA. All existing capabilities, conversion and enrichment facilities, centrifuges of all types, enriched materials at all levels, heavy-water reactors with plutogenic potential, and any other capacity, must be completely destroyed. There is no room for negotiation on this matter.
Monitoring the development of the weaponization activities is extremely challenging, as the findings from Iran’s atomic archive clearly showed in the past. Before considering any new agreement, Iran must declare all its past activities and address all unresolved questions in the IAEA files. Negotiations cannot begin without resolving previous violations and declarations regarding Iran’s past stockpiles and equipment.
Addressing delivery means requires much more than ambiguous UN resolutions. A deal must fully halt the development of ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
The previous agreement included extremely dangerous “sunset clauses.” Any negotiations, after fulffiking the above mentioned requirements, must clarify that all restrictions on Iran, should an agreement be reached, will only expire in many decades. Iran must not believe it has a future path to nuclear weapons.
It seems all of these conditions will never be accepted by Tehran current regime. Even if this assumption is correct, the Trump administration must make it clear to the Iranians that these are its demands, if Iran wants to avoid another kind of a solution, and that it is not open to negotiation.
Iran’s negative behavior has led to a situation where negotiations can only begin after the destruction of Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and many other nuclear sites and production facilities.
Until all facilities and capabilities are dismantled by Iran, willingly or by external forces, Trump administration must return to the “maximum pressure” program, including very harsh sanctions, and make it clear to Iran that the threats about a real military action by the US and its allies are not empty words.
Given the high likelihood that Iran, despite its dire state, both security-wise, due to Israeli attacks, and regionally, due to the collapse of most of its “ring of fire” proxies, will not voluntarily cooperate with an agreed destruction of its capabilities, Israel must prepare for a confrontation with Iran and its nuclear facilities, preferably with a US cooperation, while simultaneously increasing efforts to weaken the regime, hoping for its overthrow by the Iranian people, who have been oppressed by the ayatollahs’ regime for far too long.
FDD