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Russia’s Black Sea Problems Are Getting Worse.
Russia continues to suffer military defeats in the strategically vital Black Sea, one of Moscow’s most crucial avenues for political and economic influence into the Mediterranean and beyond.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.
Why It Matters
The Black Sea, which serves as a gateway to the Mediterranean and the Middle East, is a warm-water base for Moscow’s naval fleets and a critical transit hub for Russian gas and oil.
Control over the Black Sea has only become more critical after Ukraine decided not to renew its gas transit agreement with Gazprom, which had allowed the Russian energy giant to supply gas to countries in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the move as “one of Moscow’s biggest defeats.”
As a result, Russia must now rely on sending gas to its remaining European customers through the TurkStream pipeline, which crosses the Black Sea from Krasnodar Krai, Russia, to Kıyıköy, Turkey.
What To Know
On December 31, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said a naval drone strike had destroyed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in the Black sea. Days later, the country’s Defense Intelligence Directorate reported that two helicopters were destroyed and one damaged in the attack.
Ukraine’s Strategic Command previously reported that an attack on December 25 had successfully hit a command post of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, a regiment of the Black Sea Fleet based in Sevastopol.
The defeats Russia has suffered at the hands of Ukraine in the Black Sea have already been hailed as significant, leading political scientist Colin Flint to declare in October that the contest for control of the sea had “seen Russia stunningly defeated.”
The Black Sea Fleet, Russia’s once revered maritime force, was reportedly forced to relocate its base from the Crimean port city of Sevastopol in 2024 as a result of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks.
In July, Tony Radakin, a Royal Navy officer and the U.K.’s chief of the defense staff, declared that Ukraine had brought the fleet “to heel” despite the disparity in both countries’ naval forces. Weeks earlier, then-U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said the Black Sea Fleet was now “functionally inactive.”
Ukraine has also continued to target Russian assets in the Black Sea in recent months, employing unmanned surface vehicles-or “Sea Baby” drones-for attacks on gas platforms off the coast of Crimea.
One Russian military blogger said the proved capabilities of these armed, unmanned ships meant that “the situation on the Black Sea has changed dramatically not in our favor” and that Russian vessels would be largely unable to defend themselves against these drones in open sea.
What People Are Saying
Colin Flint, a political science professor at Utah State University, wrote in the Conversation on October 3: “Russia has lost control of the Black Sea. It cannot operate in these once secure near waters. These losses reduce its ability to project naval power from the Black Sea and into the Mediterranean Sea.”
The Institute for the Study of War said in a January 2 Russian campaign assessment, with reference to the December 31 attack: “ISW assesses that increased Ukrainian offensive capabilities in the Black Sea will most likely threaten Russian control over occupied Crimea.”
What Happens Next
In December, Norway pledged to provide Kyiv with $242 million to “strengthen the Ukrainian Navy” while also protecting Ukraine’s population and infrastructure “from attacks by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.”
Ukraine is expected to continue exerting pressure on Russia’s remaining forces in the Black Sea, where the Ukrainian navy recently reported that only one Russian warship remains on combat duty.
(Miami herald)