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China’s J-15 fighter output possibly growing by 40 units per year.
In a potentially significant shift in China’s military aviation capabilities, new reports suggest that the country may have ramped up its production of J-15 carrier-based fighter jets, possibly adding around 40 new units per year.
While the exact numbers remain speculative, open-source intelligence from 2023 estimates the total fleet of J-15s across all variants at roughly 60 aircraft. However, newly surfaced footage from Chinese sources shows J-15s — numbered 96 and 97 — launching from a Chinese aircraft carrier just days ago, hinting that the production rate may be accelerating at a rapid pace.
These developments point to a clear trend: China is likely building its carrier-based strike force at an even faster rate than previously thought. If the speculated 40 units per year figure holds true, this would significantly bolster China’s naval aviation capabilities and shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.
Here both relevant bort-numbers #96 & 97, what is interesting because the numbers fit into the order of the two known J-15DHs (#94 & 94) and not like the J-15Ts shown at Zhuhai with the numbers #03, 05 & 10. pic.twitter.com/ys3LAV28hu
—@Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) December 24, 2024
The J-15, China’s answer to the U.S. Navy’s F/A-18 Hornet, was developed to operate from the country’s aircraft carriers. It’s a critical component of the People’s Liberation Army Navy [PLAN], which is already undergoing an extensive modernization effort.
While it lacks some of the sophistication of its Western counterparts, the J-15 has nonetheless proven itself to be a versatile and potent fighter. This growing fleet of J-15s would provide China with a far more robust carrier air wing, enabling it to extend its influence further across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
The significance of the new footage cannot be overstated. The presence of J-15s numbered 96 and 97 on a Chinese aircraft carrier suggests that China is rapidly moving toward a fleet size of over 100 operational J-15s, a critical milestone in terms of both fleet numbers and operational readiness.
Some interesting magazine-scans showing several J-15Ts … also interesting, there are a number 96 and 97!
(Images via @Oneninety from Weibo) pic.twitter.com/WuA4KxVs27
— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) December 24, 2024
If the numbers are accurate, this would mean that China could be producing these aircraft at a far higher rate than initially expected, perhaps pushing the total production to as many as 40 new aircraft annually.
This could be a strategic move to match the growing maritime ambitions of the Chinese military and its need for a robust and self-sufficient carrier-based air force.
Beyond the J-15’s impressive capabilities, this increase in production also aligns with broader trends within China’s defense strategy. Beijing is working hard to modernize and expand its naval assets, and its growing fleet of aircraft carriers is a major component of this effort.
With tensions escalating in the South China Sea and growing competition with the United States and its allies in the Pacific, a strong carrier fleet is essential for China to project power and defend its interests in contested waters.
The rising number of J-15s and their increasing operational availability underscore China’s commitment to becoming a true blue-water navy — capable of projecting power well beyond its immediate shores. As it continues to develop and expand its fleet, the strategic implications are profound
A larger fleet of J-15 fighters could potentially tip the scales in future regional conflicts, enabling China to control key maritime chokepoints and effectively challenge U.S. Navy operations in the region.
China’s drive for military self-sufficiency is also an important factor here. The J-15, built on Russian technology but increasingly refined with Chinese innovations, reflects China’s growing ability to produce high-tech military hardware domestically.
This emphasis on indigenous production aligns with China’s broader efforts to reduce its reliance on foreign defense technologies and strengthen its domestic defense industry, ensuring that it can rapidly scale up its military assets as needed.
While much of this information remains speculative and subject to further confirmation, the trajectory is clear. China is rapidly expanding its carrier-based strike force, and the J-15 is at the heart of this expansion.
A Shenyang J-15 “Flying Shark” folding its wings. A Chinese derivative of the Russian Su-33, the J-15 is PLANAF’s leading multirole carrier-based fighter. Btw, I did not know that the J-15’s horizontal stabilizers were foldable as well 😳 It’s a humongous aircraft. pic.twitter.com/cbACbWOfol
— Air Power (@RealAirPower1) November 7, 2024
If production is indeed increasing by 40 units annually, China could soon field a far more formidable aircraft carrier fleet, capable of exerting substantial influence across the Pacific and securing its growing maritime interests.
The growing number of J-15s also raises critical questions about the future of China’s military strategy. Will China’s naval expansion trigger a new arms race in the Pacific? Could a larger fleet of J-15s challenge the dominance of U.S. carrier air wings?
What are the implications for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where China has faced increasing opposition to its territorial claims? These are questions that will continue to shape the region’s security landscape as China’s naval power grows.
Catapult-capable J-15 unveiled in bulk along with PLAN twin carrier battle group
The glorius return of heavyweight CATOBAR carrier borne fighter 😍😍😍 pic.twitter.com/ixCotmE3SA
— Fighterman_FFRC (@Fighterman_FFRC) October 31, 2024
In the coming months and years, we are likely to see more concrete details about China’s J-15 production and the strategic direction of its naval aviation. But one thing is certain: the PLAN’s growing strength — fueled in large part by its expanding fleet of J-15s — is becoming a key factor in the ever-evolving balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
The J-15, also known as the “Flying Shark,” is China’s primary carrier-based multirole fighter, developed by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation.It is heavily based on the Russian Su-33 but incorporates a range of Chinese design improvements. The J-15 is intended to operate from China’s aircraft carriers, primarily the Liaoning and the Shandong, and plays a crucial role in China’s naval power projection.
With its capabilities, it competes with the U.S. Navy’s F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet series, though it still lags behind in terms of overall performance and technological sophistication.
The J-15’s design features a modified airframe that supports carrier-based operations. This includes an arrested landing gear system, strengthened landing gear to withstand the forces of carrier landings, and a tailhook for arrested landings on carriers.
The aircraft is powered by two Russian-made D-30 afterburning turbofan engines, although there are ongoing efforts to replace them with domestically produced engines. It has a maximum takeoff weight of approximately 30,000 kg [66,000 lbs], which allows it to carry a broad range of weapons, including air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground missiles, precision-guided munitions, and bombs.
In terms of avionics, the J-15 is equipped with Chinese-made radar systems and sensors. One of the notable features is the JL-10A radar, a multi-mode radar with both air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities, similar in function to the U.S. Navy’s AN/APG-79 radar on the Super Hornet.
The fighter also carries an electronic warfare suite, including radar jammers and countermeasures, to increase survivability in contested environments. However, the J-15’s radar and avionics still face challenges in comparison to its American counterparts, and the Chinese military is continually working to enhance these systems.
The J-15 has several variants, including models tailored for different roles. The basic J-15 is a multirole fighter capable of both air superiority and ground attack missions, equipped with a combination of short-range and long-range air-to-air missiles, such as the PL-12 and PL-15, respectively.
These missiles allow the J-15 to engage enemy aircraft at medium to long ranges. The aircraft also has the ability to carry precision-guided bombs, like the LS-6, which are designed for striking land targets with high accuracy.
Another variant of the J-15 is the J-15D, an electronic warfare version that is equipped with additional jamming and surveillance equipment. This version would be tasked with disrupting enemy radar and communications systems, as well as providing intelligence and early warning capabilities to the fleet. The J-15D could also serve in a reconnaissance role, gathering intelligence from enemy radar and communications signals.
China is believed to be working on additional improvements and potential future variants of the J-15, including upgrades to its engine, avionics, and weapons systems. There are reports suggesting that a stealthier, more advanced variant of the J-15 could be under development, designed to improve the aircraft’s survivability and strike capabilities in high-threat environments.
Additionally, there are speculations that China may be working on an indigenous version of the J-15 with domestically produced engines, as well as the potential integration of new weapons like the PL-21 air-to-air missile and future anti-ship missiles.
Despite its relatively advanced capabilities, the J-15 has faced its share of challenges. The reliance on Russian-made engines has created concerns about long-term sustainability and reliability, especially given the difficulty in sourcing spare parts and components.
Moreover, the aircraft’s relatively short operational range and payload capacity when compared to other modern carrier-based fighters like the F/A-18 Super Hornet or the French Rafale pose limitations in terms of operational flexibility. Nevertheless, the J-15’s growing numbers and continued production indicate that China views this fighter as a central component of its naval ambitions.
The growing fleet of J-15s is expected to play a key role in China’s strategy to secure its maritime interests, particularly in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and other critical areas.
As China continues to modernize its navy, the J-15 will likely become an increasingly important asset in its arsenal, giving the People’s Liberation Army Navy a greater ability to project force far from Chinese shores. With continued production and potential upgrades, the J-15 is poised to remain a cornerstone of China’s carrier-based air power for years to come.
Bulgarian Military