How will North Korea react to the political crisis in South Korea?

Views: 11

How will North Korea react to the political crisis in South Korea?

 

In the past 24 hours, it seems all eyes have been on Seoul.

A late-night declaration of martial law, which was rescinded only hours later, briefly plunged South Korea’s hard-won democracy into chaos.

The story dominated global headlines and world leaders have weighed in on the political drama, expressing both concern and relief.

But the country’s secretive northern neighbour has so far remained conspicuously silent.

North Korea is still technically at war with the South, more than 70 years after the end of the Korean War.

President Yoon Suk Yeol evoked the spectre of Pyongyang in a bid to justify his extraordinary military move.

“To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements … I hereby declare emergency martial law,” he said in his address.

Some observers note this kind of rhetoric has been used by Korean dictators of the past, while others say this latest political episode will only bolster Pyongyang.

South Korea’s military has said so far there have been no “unusual” movements from Pyongyang, amid concerns the hermit state could capitalise on the political crisis.

So why hasn’t North Korea responded yet? When can we expect a reaction from leader Kim Jong Un, and what action might he take?

What’s making news in North Korea?

So far, there appears to be no mention of South Korea’s political turmoil on state-controlled media outlet Korea Central News Agency (KCNA).

Instead, the North Korean press has prioritised stories about Kim Jong Un sending a “birthday spread” to a patriotic fighter on his 90th birthday, and sending a floral basket to the Lao president.

Other stories are about the building of a new dairy farm, officials touring a tractor factory and a study tour to “revolutionary battle sites” at Mount Paektu.

That’s not to say KCNA hasn’t covered international affairs — the outlet has published stories about a treaty between Pyongyang and Moscow coming into force, as well as the foreign ministry spokesperson’s remarks on “anti-Syria terrorism”.

So why nothing on South Korea?

Experts offer a few reasons.

Journalist and North Korea expert Jean Lee noted that ordinary North Koreans probably have no idea about the political machinations going on south of the border.

“Most North Koreans do not have access to the internet and do not have permission to even phone people outside the country, so they likely do not know what is happening in South Korea,” she said.

“But I expect North Korean state media will make the most of this political upheaval eventually as part of a campaign to portray South Korean politics and society as disorganised and chaotic.”

Leonid Petrov, Korea expert and dean of the International College of Management at Sydney University, said the cogs of the propaganda machinery grind slowly in a country where an independent press does not exist and media is entirely under the control of the state.

“Information trickles into the country very slowly, so they need some time to absorb, process, formulate their position, find the vocabulary for this — so it takes time,” he said.

He said he expected information would be broadcast to the domestic public in a couple of days, explaining what happened in the South “in the usual vitriolic and pejorative terms”.

Some pointed out that North Korea was preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, where Pyongyang sent thousands of soldiers to join Russia’s forces.

“I can’t see a situation in which North Korea would try to take any military advantage of the political instability in South Korea,” said Alexander Hynd, an expert on Korean politics and research fellow at UNSW’s School of Social Sciences.

He added that this silence had precedence, for example, when former South Korean president Park Geun-hye was being impeached in 2016-17.

“North Korea was pretty quiet and let things play out without getting involved,” he said.

Du Hyeogn Cha, a political science expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in South Korea, said North Korea might be holding off and watching how the political situation in the South develops.

“North Korea is also showing signs of internal instability, so there will be no time to pay attention to the South Korean issue,” he said.

Dr Hynd said there would be officials in the North Korean government keenly aware of the situation and monitoring developments closely.

If there is an official response, he said it may come from senior North Korean regime figure Kim Yo Jong — who is Kim Jong Un’s sister.

“[She has] made a habit of attacking President Yoon with some pretty colourful language in the past, so it is possible that she might issue another spicy condemnation of the South Korean leader in the coming days or weeks,” he said.

Could this play into North Korea’s hands?

As multiple observers have pointed out, Mr Yoon borrowed from the playbook of past South Korean dictators by evoking the North Korea spectre to justify authoritarian actions.

Lauren Richardson, an international relations expert at the ANU who is currently in Seoul, said it was “problematic” that Mr Yoon had cited “pro-North Korean” forces.

Has Video Duration: 56 seconds.

Watch 56s

“It’s going to have ramifications that are very favourable to North Korea,” she told ABC’s RN Breakfast.

“We can see that it’s probably going to be the death knell for the Japan-US-South Korea military pact that emerged under the Yoon administration, and that really plays into North Korea’s hands.”

She said the episode meant it was likely the opposition would come to power in South Korea, and they were more likely to engage with Pyongyang and not take as hardline a stance as Mr Yoon’s conservative party.

Dr Petrov added that North Korea could project the South Korean military as “weak” and undisciplined in light of the botched martial law decree.

Dr Hynd said we might expect to see some claims in the international press that Mr Yoon’s actions “could result in a new provocation from Kim Jong Un — maybe a North Korean missile or nuclear test”.

“But this kind of speculation should be taken with a heavy pinch of salt: people have been predicting an imminent seventh nuclear test in North Korea for years and yet here we are, still waiting,” he said.

The recent chaos enveloping Seoul’s presidential Blue House was a gift to propagandists in the North, Dr Petrov said.

“Right now they are just waiting and seeing how they are going to present it — as a victory of the people against the corrupt regime, or as something more sinister, like an attempt to provoke another war on the Korean Peninsula with the help of foreign forces,” he said.

Rather than missiles, experts say psychological operations have ratcheted up between North and South in recent months, with Pyongyang sending balloons full of garbage over the border, and blasting “blood-curdling” sounds from loudspeakers at harmful levels.

Dr Petrov said South Korea’s “embarrassing incident” could provide fuel for North Korea’s propaganda.

“[They might have] fireworks to celebrate the Democratic People’s Republic moral victory over the Republic of Korea,” he said.

“Without shooting a single shot, North Koreans see the [likely] dismissal of the South Korean president [and] chaos on the streets of Seoul.”

ABC NEWS