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Ukraine faces grim situation in Donetsk as Russian forces advance, analysts warn
Ukraine is confronting a deteriorating situation in the eastern Donetsk region as Russian forces make significant advances, marking some of their fastest progress since the summer of 2022, according to experts and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts.
“The last week has been extremely difficult for the Ukrainians – the Russians were able to breach Ukrainian defences in various areas,” Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finnish-based Black Bird Group, told The Kyiv Independent. Moscow’s forces have accelerated their campaign in the eastern Donbas region, with Kastehelmi noting they have advanced “faster than any time after the summer of 2022.”
Russia’s Defence Ministry announced on 29 October that its troops had captured Selydove, a town strategically located near the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. While Kyiv has yet to issue an official comment, independent OSINT analysts have all but confirmed the town’s fall.
An analysis by the Russian news outlet Agentsvo, citing data from Deep State, reported that Russian forces seized 196.1 square kilometres (75.7 square miles) of territory during the week of October 20-27. “The Russian army has not had such a rapid weekly advance since at least the beginning of this year,” Agentsvo wrote on Telegram.
Since withdrawing from Vuhledar in early October, Ukrainian forces have faced mounting pressure in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around towns such as Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Kurakhove, where Ukrainian soldiers are struggling to hold back advancing Russian units.
“The city of Selydove is now most likely totally lost,” Kastehelmi said. “There could be some Ukrainians in the western parts, but the city is basically lost.” He noted that the fallback positions Ukrainian troops are moving to are not as heavily fortified as the previous defences, raising concerns of further Russian advances.
When asked if the situation could deteriorate further, Kastehelmi warned of a “real danger of that”, although he noted that Russian forces would need substantial resources and reserves to exploit potential gaps in Ukrainian defences. “Even though the Russians have pushed 10 kilometres in a week, we still haven’t seen something that by definition would be a breakthrough,” he added.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long stated his aim of capturing the entire Donbas region, which includes both Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. While Russia occupies most of Donetsk, Ukraine still controls key cities such as Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Chasiv Yar. To achieve full control of the Donbas, Russia would need to take an additional 10,000 square kilometres (3,860 square miles) of territory, which, at the current rate, could take almost a year.
Russia’s gains have come at a steep cost. Casualties among Russian forces in October are estimated to have reached around 40,000, according to Janek Kesselmann, the deputy commander of the Estonian Military Intelligence Centre.
With winter looming, uncertainties surrounding the outcome of next week’s US presidential election and future American weapon supplies, as well as Ukrainian concerns over manpower and morale, Kyiv faces an increasingly precarious position.
“This is a pretty grim situation for the Ukrainians,” Kastehelmi said, as both sides brace for a challenging winter on the front lines.
intelli news