Turkey phasing out S-400s while negotiating F-35 acquisition

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Russia and Turkey discuss the supply of an additional batch of S-400 missile system — Photo credit: AFP

Back in July 2019, Turkey was formally removed from the F-35 program after it began receiving components for its S-400 system earlier that same month. Washington used the F-35 program as leverage to influence Ankara to comply with NATO’s broader policy of restricting arms revenues flowing to the Russian defense sector.

Although the Turkish government hinted at potentially acquiring Russian fighter jets like the Su-35 or Su-57, the practicality of this option remained questionable. Turkey’s NATO membership, deep integration with Western military structures, and heavy reliance on the West for technology transfers, trade, political, and military support all present significant hurdles.

Could Turkish arms aid to Ukraine reclaim Ankara's F-35 status — Photo credit: Lockheed Martin

After negotiating with Washington, Turkey seems likely to shift its focus from acquiring older F-16 fighters to prioritizing funding for F-35 acquisitions due to fewer export restrictions on the latter.

According to reports from the Greek media outlet Kathimerini, the United States presented a detailed proposal over the summer to resolve the contentious issue of Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system. This proposal would allow Turkey to keep the missiles on its territory but effectively transfer their control to the United States, as per the exclusive information provided by Kathimerini.

In ongoing discussions that appear to be more advanced than previously known, senior U.S. officials have suggested moving the Russian systems to the U.S.-controlled sector of the Incirlik base in southern Turkey. This strategy aims to save Turkey from international embarrassment by not requiring a direct reversal of its decision, while also ensuring that no terms of its contract with Russia are violated.

Despite the complexity of the issue, both parties now seem keen on reaching a successful conclusion. A resolution would significantly address a major problem for Washington and NATO while enabling Ankara to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Pentagon official, explained to Kathimerini that White House and Pentagon officials elevated the proposal to the highest levels in July. “Sources in the region indicated that during their visit to Turkey on July 1-2, 2024, Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, and Michael Carpenter, special advisor to the President and senior director for Europe at the US National Security Council, discussed reviving the F-35 deal with Turkish officials. In exchange for rejoining the F-35 program, they asked Turkey to hand over the S-400 systems to the United States or relocate them to the US-controlled sector at the Incirlik base,” said Rubin.

The US Embassy in Ankara reported that Wallander and Carpenter discussed expanding areas for increased partnership with Turkish officials, aiming to enhance long-standing defense ties. Asked about the exact state of the negotiations, Pentagon spokesperson Javan Rasnake stated, “Since 2019, we have communicated to Turkey our position on its acquisition of the S-400 system and its consequences, which are mandated by legislation. There has been no change in the US stance or legislation on this matter.”

According to sources from Kathimerini, Turkey’s response at this stage has not been positive. However, discussions are set to continue later this week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Rubin adds that “their Turkish counterparts refused and stated they would keep the systems boxed up within Turkey. Nevertheless, the deal is not off the table. Reviving the F-35 agreement will be a topic of interest for the United States and Turkey when leaders and security officials meet next week at the UN General Assembly.”

The submission of this plan for transferring the systems to this specific location, in addition to the legislative initiatives that were unsuccessfully launched in Congress this summer, indicates that efforts to resolve the S-400 issue are in full swing. Various options are being considered, and potential changes in US policy or legislation could be on the horizon.

This situation also raises the significant possibility that the S-400 systems could be tested by the United States Armed Forces. Such tests would offer valuable insights into countering Russia’s primary air defense capabilities. If such a deal is reached, it will have a profound impact on Turkish aerial warfare capabilities.

S-400 jointly with A-50 AEW&C shot down Su-27 and MiG-29 - Russia — Photo credit: LinkedIn

The F-35, alongside the Chinese J-20, is one of the only fifth-generation fighters in large-scale production worldwide. This aircraft is gradually transforming the aerial warfare capabilities of Western nations. On the other hand, Turkey currently relies on older variants of the F-16 and F-4, which still use outdated mechanically scanned array radars and have not adopted 21st-century air-to-air missile technology in any significant way.

For Washington and the broader Western community, reinstating Turkey in the F-35 program would be a highly beneficial move. Turkey, along with the United States, maintains the largest military presence in the Middle East among NATO members and continues to play a pivotal role in supporting various Islamist militant groups, such as the Al-Nusra Front and the Turkestan Islamic Party.

These Islamist groups have concentrated their attacks on Syrian, Russian, Hezbollah, and Iranian targets for over a decade. The Turkish Air Force has been instrumental in protecting these groups, providing close air support for their assaults on Syrian targets, and even shooting down Syrian and Russian aircraft within Syrian airspace.

Six Australian F-35s fly over Nevada in 'world's toughest dogfight' — Photo credit: RAAF / X

Turkish forces and allied groups have played a crucial role in diverting the focus of Damascus, Hezbollah, and other regional players away from Israel and the United States. This has been particularly beneficial for Western interests since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict intensified in October 2023.

As Israeli F-35s exert pressure on adversaries, Turkey’s expanding F-35 fleet along Syria’s northwestern border exacerbates this effect. Enhancing Turkey’s ability to support NATO objectives in the region is invaluable, especially as U.S. forces are spread thin across multiple theaters.

Although Israel has opposed the sale of F-35s to other Arab states, it has not objected to Turkey acquiring the aircraft. This development stands to significantly improve Turkey’s strategic position in the region. Furthermore, the risks associated with supplying F-35s to Turkey are minimal, thanks to the centralized ALIS logistics system. This system gives Washington the capability to promptly disrupt the operations of the aircraft in foreign hands if necessary.

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