Africa: Scaling up financing is key to accelerating Africa’s structural transformation (By Adamon Mukasa and Anthony Simpasa)

But Africa is a very large, diverse, heterogeneous, region. Some countries have, over the past four decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, experienced episodes of growth accelerations, growth spikes and failed take-offs (http://apo-opa.co/4gcshPk). Cases of consistent good performance include Botswana, Seychelles, and Mauritius, routinely ranked among the top 10 fastest-growing economies globally. African countries have indeed exhibited remarkable resilience amid confounding shocks, and in 2024, 10 countries[1] in Africa are projected to be among the world’s top 20 fastest-growing economies, sustaining the trend observed during the past four decades pre-COVID-19.

Importantly, over the past quarter century, thanks to strong economic reforms and macroeconomic stability, enhanced governance, relative peace and improved political environment and, public investments in soft and hard infrastructure, some African countries[2] have managed to transform their economies and recorded economic growth rates above the global average.

The role of finance in fast-tracking Africa’s structural transformation

Many factors, both internal and external, could explain the relatively slow progress in structurally transforming African economies. Among them: over-reliance on commodity-led growth (http://apo-opa.co/4fZJTxI), inadequate infrastructure (http://apo-opa.co/4dV5DZE); insufficient pool of skilled workers (http://apo-opa.co/4g49x4g) and low access to affordable finance (http://apo-opa.co/47361D8); weak institutional governance (http://apo-opa.co/4e0O5LG), recurrent conflicts (http://apo-opa.co/4g49rtq), effects of climate change (http://apo-opa.co/3ABuuTU), tightening of global financial conditions (http://apo-opa.co/4fZSFvC) and rising debt vulnerabilities (http://apo-opa.co/4724oWk).

While all these factors are equally important and call for urgent actions from policymakers, financing Africa’s transformation (http://apo-opa.co/4fTo1Uy) is a multi-layered overarching challenge that demands special attention and a pragmatic approach to move from billions to trillions. The cost of achieving the SDGs by 2030 in Africa is estimated at about $1.3 trillion (http://apo-opa.co/4gcsi5Q) annually, equivalent to 42% of Africa’s 2023 GDP. Infrastructure needs alone are estimated by the African Development Bank at $181-$221 billion per year over 2023-2030.  The climate finance gap is approximately $213.4 billion (http://apo-opa.co/4gcsiTo) annually through 2030.

Insufficient domestic resources (http://apo-opa.co/471DE8y), compounded by the failure of the global financial architecture (http://apo-opa.co/471zU6K) to mobilize and at scale, affordable finance for sustainable development (http://apo-opa.co/4gcskL0), have led many African countries to resort to commercial borrowing on unfavorable terms. This has resulted in increased debt vulnerabilities. Africa’s Public and Publicly Guaranteed external debt has nearly tripled since 2010, reaching $656 billion in 2022, accounting for 22.4% of the continent’s GDP and exceeding Africa’s public revenue-to-GDP ratio of 20.4%. In 2024, African countries are expected to spend around $74 billion on debt service, up from $17 billion in 2010. Out of the projected debt service, $40 billion is owed to private creditors.

Even more concerning, debt service payments now account for about 11% of the continent’s total revenues. High debt service is diverting resources from crucial investments in infrastructure, education, and health – all critical for economic transformation and long-term growth. As of April 2024, 20 African countries[3] (http://apo-opa.co/47361TE) were either in external debt distress or at high risk of external debt distress.

The AEO 2024 report estimates that to accelerate Africa’s structural transformation, the continent needs to close an annual financing gap of $402.2 billion (about 13.7% of its projected 2024 GDP) by 2030. Figure 2 shows that transport[4] infrastructure accounts for the largest share of the gap (72.9%), followed by education (10.4%), energy (9.9%), and productivity-enhancing technologies (6.8%). These figures reflect decades of underinvestment in critical areas for development.

The level of financing gap in transport infrastructure reflects the continent’s shortfall explained by decades of public underinvestment to upgrade existing road infrastructure or open new roadways, to match the growing population and economic dynamism across the continent. For instance, Africa’s median road density is about 12 km per 100 km², compared with 42.5 km in high-performing developing countries and 136 km in high-income countries. Only about 27% of African roads are paved, far behind the rest of the world (about 49%) and other developing countries (35.4%).