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Russia has once again delayed the delivery of the remaining two units of the S-400 ‘Triumf’ [NATO name SA-21 Growler] long-range surface-to-air missiles to India, pushing the timeline to 2026. Initially, all five missile squadrons were expected to be delivered by early 2024. Given the complex geopolitical landscape in the Indian subcontinent, India has urged quicker delivery of the remaining missiles. The S-400 functions much like the American Patriot air defense missile system.
This request was highlighted during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia. While Russia has promised to consider the request, no definitive delivery date has been provided. An Indian defense official shared, “India has requested the Russian side during recent talks to expedite the deliveries for meeting Indian Air Force requirements and try to advance the timeline.” The Russian side, in response, has assured that they will look into the matter.
Russia has informed India that the delivery of the fourth and fifth squadrons of the system will be delayed, now expected by March and October 2026, respectively. This delay is attributed to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Back in 2018, India signed a $5.43 billion agreement for five S-400 squadrons. Three squadrons have already been received and are stationed in the eastern and western regions to counter threats from China and Pakistan. This sophisticated system, with its versatile missile range, is capable of intercepting enemy ballistic and cruise missiles, fighter jets, and UAVs flying up to 400 kilometers away.
Beyond the Ukrainian conflict, uncertainties around payments have also slowed down the delivery. In 2023, around $3 billion in payments were stalled. Both nations are working to avoid dollar transactions due to the potential risk of US sanctions under the CAATSA [Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act].
Attempts to settle payments through a Rupee-Ruble arrangement have not resolved the issue due to significant trade imbalances and the accumulation of Rupees in Indian banks. In July 2019, the Indian government stated in a parliamentary reply that S-400 deliveries were “likely to be made by April 2023.” As of early 2023, officials projected deliveries would be completed by year-end or early 2024 without further delays.
The acquisition of the S-400 comes in context with key events like the 2019 Balakot airstrike in Pakistan and the 2020 Galwan Valley clash with China. S-400 systems stationed in the Himalayas are capable of reaching Chinese airfields and covering up to 80 percent of Pakistan’s territorial space.
During Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia, both nations moved closer to finalizing the establishment of local maintenance and repair facilities for the S-400 air defense system in India. According sources, negotiations between the Indian company and Almaz-Antey are nearly finalized. Plans include setting up two maintenance centers and starting spare parts production in India by 2028. This potential venture builds on discussions initiated by Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov in 2019, which looked into local S-400 production in India.
India is not alone in facing defense supply challenges post-Ukraine conflict. Russia also failed to deliver weapons worth around US $400 million to Armenia, without refunding the payment. This failed arms deal further strained Russia-Armenia relations, driving Armenia to diversify its arms import sources, turning to the West and India.
The duel will be watched
Russia’s S-400 is a sophisticated long-range, road-mobile surface-to-air missile system, designed to succeed the older S-300. Initially developed to counter aerial threats such as missiles and aircraft, it’s shown versatility in the ongoing conflict by being used for surface-to-surface strikes, hitting Ukrainian cities.
According to Pravda, a typical S-400 battalion includes 8 launchers with 32 missiles, costing around $200 million. Each launcher can carry different types of missiles with ranges spanning from 40 to 400 km. The battalion setup also features truck-mounted radars, a mobile command post, and multiple launch platforms.
Before the Ukraine conflict, the International Institute for Strategic Studies already recognized the S-400 as “one of the world’s most sophisticated” air defense systems. Introduced in 2007, the S-400 has cemented its reputation as a formidable part of Russia’s military arsenal.
With F-16s set to arrive in Ukraine soon, the world anticipates an intense confrontation with the S-400 systems. Experts believe that any F-16s in Ukraine entering the S-400 range will become targets, while Ukrainian F-16 pilots will prioritize the S-400 system.
The S-400’s mobility ensures quick deployment. Its advanced radar capabilities provide India with deep surveillance into the China-Pakistan border, boosting situational awareness and response. The Indian defense establishment will be particularly interested in the F-16 vs. S-400 scenario, given that Pakistan, their long-time adversary, operates F-16s.
Beyond merely observing the conflict, India is eager to receive the remaining two units of their missile systems, even standing up to US sanctions to do so. Turkey, a fellow NATO member, faced ostracism and was removed from the F-35 program for acquiring the same system. However, New Delhi successfully balanced US concerns with its goals of modernizing its armed forces.