While Erdogan has repeatedly expressed the hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not “resort to an armed attack and occupation of Ukraine,” he has framed those admonitions as advice from a friend, trying to balance Turkey’s need for cordial relations with Russia, its increasingly lucrative military partnership with Ukraine, and its commitments to the Atlantic alliance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan review the honor guard at a welcoming ceremony during Erdogan's visit in 2020.© Gleb Garanich/Reuters Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan review the honor guard at a welcoming ceremony during Erdogan’s visit in 2020.

“We would never want a war between Russia and Ukraine,” Erdogan said in a speech Tuesday in northeastern Turkey. “I hope we can resolve this peacefully.” His trip comes after an unsuccessful effort to host the Ukrainian and Russian leaders for a mediation meeting, followed by a solo invitation to Putin. The Russian leader responded coolly, saying through a spokesperson that he would visit Erdogan “once the coronavirus situation and their work schedules allow.”

Turkey occupies a unique geographic and political position in the region, including its control over access to the Black Sea, and the presence of three pipelines carrying Russian natural gas to its territory and beyond to Europe. In a relationship marked by bouts of cooperation and confrontation, Erdogan and Putin have generally kept up a steady dialogue, managing at least temporarily to resolve differences over Syria and Central Asia. In 2017, Erdogan bucked NATO and the United States with the purchase of a $2.5 billion Russian antiaircraft defense system, leading Washington to suspend Turkey from participation in the F-35 stealth fighter program and from purchasing the planes.

Rather than giving Turkey a unique opportunity as a peacemaker, however, the current tensions have made Ankara desperate to avoid a confrontation, said Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

In an earlier crisis, when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, “Erdogan didn’t know how to react,” Tol said. “At the time, there was a lot of Western pressure, but he tilted towards Russia,” including by dithering over whether to allow U.S. military ships carrying humanitarian aid to pass through the Bosporus into the Black Sea. Six years later, when Russia annexed Crimea, Turkey refused to join the West in imposing sanctions on Moscow, despite Erdogan’s anger over a move that was seen as reducing Turkey’s influence in the Black Sea region.

In the current confrontation with Ukraine and NATO, Erdogan has been even more constrained because of domestic concerns: He faces an election next year amid a dire domestic economic crisis. Russia has the power to make matters worse by canceling flights carrying the hordes of Russian tourists that visit Turkey each year or banning Turkish agricultural products — measures Putin has used in the past to signal displeasure.

Turkey’s sale of armed drones to Ukraine — part of Ankara’s feverish effort to find new markets for its rapidly expanding defense industry — has stoked Russian fears that an influx of NATO weapons is shifting the military balance in its region. The Russian concerns came to a head in October, when a strike by a Ukraine-operated Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone destroyed a howitzer used by Russia-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region.

In a telephone conversation in December, Putin chastised Erdogan over Ukraine’s use of the weapons, calling it “destructive” behavior and “provocative,” according to a Russian readout of the call. Erdogan plans to sign a free-trade agreement with Ukraine during his visit there, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Wednesday.

Both U.S. and Turkish officials believe that, even in the event of conflict in Ukraine, Putin will not play the pipeline card with Turkey. Ankara has the power to strike back by causing trouble in places where Russia has separate interests and the two have been on opposite sides, including Syria and Libya.

The Russian threat is seen as much more potent for gas traveling to Europe through Ukraine. The Biden administration believes it has put in place a fallback, in the event of a cutoff, to provide enough natural gas to heat European homes and keep factories running by persuading other large global suppliers in the Middle East and Africa, as well as U.S. commercial producers, to make up the difference.

The immediate, Ukraine-related problem has revived other concerns related to Turkey’s control over access from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, as detailed in the Montreux Convention, a1936 treaty that gives it the right to regulate the passage of warships and other vessels of security concern through the narrow Dardanelles and Bosporus passages that divide the country between Europe and Asia.

While the Montreux Convention affirms freedom of passage for commercial vessels, it limits the number, tonnage, armaments and length of stay of military vessels of states not bordering the Black Sea. During the Obama administration, Turkey refused to allow LNG (liquefied natural gas) tankers to pass through the straits, effectively scuttling a proposal to construct an LNG terminal in Odessa, Ukraine. Turkey said such shipping could be vulnerable to missile attack and was thus a security concern.

In recent days, Erdogan’s defense minister reiterated the Turkish government’s adherence to the treaty. Those comments were widely seen as an effort to assuage Russia, which sees the pact as a way to limit the number of NATO warships in the Black Sea and the duration of time they spend there.

“Our stance is open and clear. We have been expressing for years that we are in favor of the countries bordering the Black Sea, living in peace, dialogue, tranquility and prosperity within the framework of the Montreux regime,” Hulusi Akar, the defense minister, said during a videoconference on Monday with senior military officials. The treaty was “beneficial for all parties,” he added, saying it was “out of the question to give up on it under present conditions.”

A U.S. Defense Department spokesperson, Marine Lt. Col. Anton T. Semelroth, noting that Turkey has long supported U.S. and NATO operations in the region, said the country had always fulfilled its treaty obligations, “and we have every indication” it will continue to do so.

Fahim reported from Istanbul.

Turkey’s Erdogan visits Ukraine with unique perspective on brewing crisis (msn.com):