Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz — What could happen next?
As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate into open military conflict, global markets are already beginning to feel the impact. One of the most immediate effects has been a sharp uptick in oil prices, which analysts warn could soar to unprecedented levels — potentially reaching $200 to $300 per barrel — if the situation deteriorates further. But the real danger may not lie solely in the military confrontation itself, but rather in a geopolitical move that Tehran has hinted at for years: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The warning came most recently from Esmail Kowsari, a member of Iran’s parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy. Speaking to Iran’s Rokna news agency, he stated that closing the Strait is now being seriously considered, and that Iran “will not hesitate to take such a decision” if its national interests are threatened. This is not an empty threat — the strategic and economic importance of the Strait makes such a move a potentially devastating blow to the global economy.
Source: TRT World
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway approximately 195 kilometers long, nestled between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. It forms a crucial maritime link between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, ultimately connecting to the Arabian Sea. Often referred to as the gateway to the Persian Gulf, this corridor is vital for global energy supplies: roughly 30% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) and about 20% of all oil and petroleum products traded internationally pass through it. Every vessel leaving the oil-rich Persian Gulf — including those from Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar — must navigate this chokepoint to reach open seas.
Against the backdrop of rising hostilities, Israel is reportedly preparing to intensify its military campaign against Iran’s critical oil and gas infrastructure. Possible targets include oil fields, refineries, pipelines, and export terminals. Should these be destroyed, Iran would not only lose the backbone of its economy but also be deprived of the resources needed to recover in the aftermath of war. Faced with existential economic threats, Tehran may choose to retaliate by closing the Strait — a move that could send shockwaves through international markets.
Iran currently exports about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. A sudden loss of this export capacity would push the country toward a severe economic crisis, but the consequences would be global. Oil prices are already climbing, albeit gradually. Yet markets are clearly holding their breath, unsure of how far the Iran–Israel confrontation will go. What is becoming increasingly evident is that the conflict is not subsiding; in fact, it is escalating. Israel continues its strikes with determination, and Iran is responding with measured but deliberate counterattacks — creating a dangerous cycle of retaliation.
Source: PRESS TV
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Iran has used the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic bargaining chip. In 2018, then-President Hassan Rouhani warned that if the United States attempted to halt Iranian oil exports, Tehran would ensure that no oil left the Persian Gulf at all. This was in direct response to sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. A similar warning came in 2011, when Iran threatened to block oil shipments through the Strait in retaliation for U.S. and European sanctions.
Looking further back, the so-called “Tanker War” of 1984–1987 during the Iran-Iraq conflict offers a stark reminder of how fragile this key transit route can be. During that period, commercial oil tankers became targets of military strikes, and while no side claimed victory, the attacks severely disrupted oil trade and increased volatility in the region. Interestingly, oil prices did not spike dramatically at the time, remaining around $30 per barrel — leading some modern analysts to argue that today’s situation may not necessarily cause a long-term oil shock. However, others warn that current global energy interdependence, reduced spare production capacity, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty make the current risk far greater.
Skeptics also point out that Iran might ultimately refrain from closing the Strait, using the threat as a deterrent rather than an actual course of action. However, the very possibility of such a move continues to create unease across financial and political centers worldwide.
Should Iran follow through on its threat, the fallout would be far-reaching. Not only would oil-consuming nations be impacted — the presumed targets of such a move — but also Iran’s regional neighbors and fellow oil producers. The Gulf monarchies, including the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Iraq, rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil exports. Ironically, many of these countries have strained relations with Iran and would suffer collateral damage. Even Saudi Arabia, which has long operated an alternative pipeline to the Red Sea, would not be immune. Although this pipeline provides a strategic alternative, it cannot fully compensate for the volume that flows through the Strait.
Source: Foxnews
To mitigate similar threats in the past, countries have developed workarounds. In 2012, amid another round of tensions, Saudi Arabia reactivated an oil pipeline originally built by Saddam Hussein in the 1980s to bypass Iran. The pipeline connects oil fields in Iraq to the Red Sea coast, and though it was dormant for years due to geopolitical upheaval, it was repaired and brought back into service by the Saudis in the 2000s. That same year, the United Arab Emirates launched another major pipeline circumventing the Strait, constructed explicitly to counter potential Iranian threats.
Together, these alternative routes can transport approximately 3.1 million barrels per day — a fraction of the nearly 20 million barrels that currently pass through the Strait daily. This stark gap underscores just how critical the Strait remains, despite diversification efforts.
Whether Iran ultimately decides to close the Strait of Hormuz remains an open question. What is clear, however, is that the deepening military conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv has pushed the region — and the world — to the brink of a new crisis. In this context, rising oil prices may prove to be the least of our concerns.