Estonia Trains for a War With Russia That NATO Hopes to Deter.
Ämari Air Base, ESTONIA – Speakers strung across Estonia’s sole operational air base blare an exercise/training status warning: “TEST, TEST, TEST – AIR RAID ALERT!”
From cue to deployment, it would take less than 15 minutes for the handful of F-16 fighters stationed here to scramble and take off to guard Baltic skies and respond to potential incursions.
As part of Estonia’s largest military exercise, Hedgehog 25, around 16,000 Estonian and allied troops from 10 NATO countries are rehearsing a three-week mock scenario: Russian troops have started an incursion across the border, triggering NATO’s mutual defense clause, and an existential fight for the Baltic region.
The rehearsed playbook feels all too real in this part of Europe. Over recent years, incidents between Russia and NATO countries – which now include both Sweden and Finland – have been on the rise.
Mid-exercise this week, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet violated Estonian airspace while a naval patrol attempted to inspect a vessel from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” created to bypass Western sanctions.
Baltic defense officials confirmed the incident prompted NATO to scramble Portuguese F-16s for its air policing mission.
A new reality
“The exercise is the first time we are actually rehearsing [NATO’s] new regional deterrence and defense plans, including the swift redeployment of [international] units in the defense of Estonia,” said Peeter Kuimet, director of international cooperation at the Estonian defense ministry.
NATO’s revamped strategy, which determines the allies’ response to a potential attack, was agreed upon only last year.
Previous defense plans called for a so-called “trip-wire” approach, in which Baltic troops would delay a Russian advance while awaiting NATO reinforcements.
Taking into account new threat assessments of Moscow’s tactics [and history of war crimes– ed.], “the plans are now to defend territory from the first instance,” Kuimet said, which means Russians would not be purposely allowed to advance even an inch.
With the previous exercise having taken place just a few weeks after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the current one is its most sobering, informed by a pair of grim lessons drawn from the past years.
Estonian officials say the war in Ukraine has demonstrated Russia’s willingness to raze what it cannot hold, and the near impossibility of reclaiming firmly occupied land without immense cost.
“In Bucha, we saw how the Russians treat the Ukrainians, their Slavic brothers. I don’t want to think about how they would treat the Balts, whom they have always considered evil fascists,” Kuimet said.
Tallinn is also more firmly embracing the concept of “total defense,” extending readiness beyond military to civil defense.
Parallel to the military exercises, they tested the country’s revamped emergency alert system, with blaring sirens across the country, for the first time this week.
The new 120-siren network, installed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, covers about two-thirds of Estonia’s population.
Waiting for Uncle Sam
Yet well-oiled rehearsals on the ground are overshadowed by doubts about the future of America’s long-standing commitment to European security, should its darkest hour strike.
NATO’s ability to deter a potential attack and strike back with sufficient military might still hinges on American reinforcements.
Since returning to the White House, US President Donald Trump has thrown his administration’s commitment to NATO into question and raised unprecedented doubts about the alliance. Trump’s threats to potentially withdraw 20,000 troops from Europe feed those concerns.
US troops are conspicuously absent from this year’s drills, after taking part in previous editions of the exercise. European defense officials asked about the missing “American factor,” pointedly declined to speculate.
“We’ve shown here with this exercise that collectively European forces alone are very, very strong and capable of being able to perform that deterrent role against Russia,” said Lt. Col. Huw Raikes, the commander of a contingent of British troops stationed in Estonia.
European forces may be ready to fight, but they’re still years away from being able to replace the capabilities – overwhelming airpower, sophisticated logistics, satellite systems – that the Americans can bring to battle.
“As far as Estonia is concerned, for the foreseeable future, the defense of Europe without US input is unthinkable,” Kuimet admitted.
Meanwhile, the hope across Europe is that its growing willingness to invest more in defense will appease some of the frustrations in Washington and keep the Americans engaged.
Even a managed reduction of US military presence in Europe must be “rational, planned-through, combined effort” to avoid capability gaps, Kuimet argued, and cannot occur simply on a Trumpian whim.
“What we hear from US counterparts, that’s how they see it too,” he added.
Bunkers and barbed wire
Estonians are also digging in – literally. Over the next four years, Tallinn plans to spend half a billion euros on military infrastructure, including 600 reinforced concrete bunkers along its eastern frontier. Stockpiles of barbed wire, tank traps and landmines are being placed for rapid deployment.
There are also plans for a new military base in Narva, the country’s easternmost outpost on the Russian border, by 2027. Once ready, it will host a permanent contingent of several hundred soldiers.
Estonia’s preparations are more than symbolism. The country’s intelligence service recently warned that Russia has been proceeding with plans to form new military units near the border. Estonia’s spies warn that Moscow could shift focus to Northern Europe once the war in Ukraine ends.
Narva itself has been something of a flashpoint in border disputes. A year ago, Russian authorities removed 24 out of 50 river buoys that mark the border.
Yet the militarization of the border city is controversial, not least because it is a center for Estonia’s sizeable Russian-speaking minority.
Narva’s mayor, Katri Raik, has a difficult task at hand, as the support for those plans among the city’s residents is meagre. Many fear they could end up as collateral damage in the event of war.
Estonian officials insist that placing a new base at the border is part of a long-standing strategy, rather than a reactive measure. “This way, more training for defense forces would take place in areas where they would operate in times of war,” said Kuimet.
See the original of this article by Alexandra Brzozowski for Euractiv here.