U.S. billion-dollar campaign struggles against Houthi missiles

More than three weeks into a relentless U.S. air campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, a stark reality is emerging: the strikes, costing taxpayers nearly $1 billion, have failed to cripple the group’s ability to threaten American naval forces and international shipping in the Red Sea.

A U.S. official told CNN that resources for the operation are nearing exhaustion, raising questions about its sustainability as the price tag soars. This news, first shared by the Belarus-based outlet NEXTA on X, has sparked debate about whether a ground operation might be the next step—a prospect that carries its own daunting challenges.

The U.S. military has leaned heavily on advanced technology to execute this campaign, deploying a mix of precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems. Among the workhorses are Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles [JASSMs], long-range cruise missiles designed to strike targets from a safe distance.

These subsonic missiles, with a range of up to 1,500 miles, carry a 1,000-pound warhead and have been a staple of U.S. operations since the Gulf War. Unmanned MQ-9 Reaper drones have also played a role, providing both surveillance and strike capabilities with Hellfire missiles. Yet, despite this high-tech arsenal, the Houthis remain operational, their resilience a testament to adaptability honed over years of conflict.

The Houthis’ ability to withstand this onslaught lies in their tactical evolution. Emerging in the 1990s as a Zaidi Shia revivalist movement in northern Yemen, they transformed into a formidable militia during the country’s civil war, seizing the capital, Sanaa, in 2014.

Backed by Iran, they’ve developed a decentralized network that defies conventional targeting. Rather than relying on centralized bases, they’ve dispersed their missile launchers, drones, and leadership across Yemen’s rugged terrain. Mountainous regions like Saada province, a Houthi stronghold, offer natural cover, while underground bunkers—some reportedly built with Iranian assistance—shield key assets.

What’s driving this campaign? The Houthis began targeting Red Sea shipping in late 2023, claiming solidarity with Palestinians amid Israel’s war in Gaza. Using drones, ballistic missiles, and explosive-laden boats, they’ve attacked over 190 vessels, sunk two, and killed at least four seafarers, according to Al Jazeera.

This campaign forced a 70% drop in Red Sea cargo volume, rerouting global trade around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope at a cost of nearly $200 billion, per The Economist. The U.S. response, dubbed Operation Rough Rider, kicked off on March 15 after the Houthis resumed attacks following a brief Gaza ceasefire.

The technological mismatch between the U.S. and the Houthis is striking. While the Pentagon deploys cutting-edge systems, the Houthis rely on a mix of Iranian-supplied hardware and improvised weapons. Their arsenal includes the Quds-1 cruise missile, with a range of about 500 miles, and the Toofan ballistic missile, capable of striking targets up to 1,200 miles away.

Both are derived from Iranian designs, though analysts suspect local modifications. Drones like the Samad-3, also Iranian in origin, extend their reach to Israel, as demonstrated by a deadly strike in Tel Aviv last year. These systems lack the sophistication of American hardware—lacking stealth or advanced guidance—but their low cost and mobility make them hard to eradicate. By contrast, each JASSM costs around $1.2 million, and a Tomahawk nears $2 million, contributing to the operation’s staggering expense.

Why haven’t these strikes succeeded? Intelligence gaps may be a culprit. A U.S. defense official, speaking to Reuters on March 19, confirmed the deaths of several Houthi leaders but admitted that targeting remains a challenge. The group’s leaders, including Abdul Malik al-Houthi, have gone underground, cutting communications and blending into civilian areas.

Talk of a ground operation has surfaced as a potential escalation. CNN’s report quoted an unnamed official suggesting that air strikes alone might not suffice, a view echoed by regional analysts. Yemen’s terrain, however, poses a formidable obstacle.

The country’s western highlands, where the Houthis are entrenched, rise to over 12,000 feet, with narrow valleys and steep slopes ideal for ambushes. During the Saudi-led war, Houthi fighters used these mountains to devastating effect, bogging down coalition forces in a quagmire that cost Riyadh billions.

Iran’s role adds another layer of complexity. The Houthis’ missiles and drones bear Tehran’s fingerprints, and U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have blamed Iran for enabling the group’s attacks. Trump has warned Tehran to halt its support, threatening retaliation if it doesn’t comply. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, denied direct involvement in a March 16 X post, but evidence of arms smuggling persists.

A ground operation risks drawing Iran deeper into the fray, perhaps through proxies like Hezbollah or direct intervention. The Telegraph reported on April 4 that Iran is scaling back its presence in Yemen to avoid escalation, but a U.S. invasion could reverse that calculus, igniting a broader regional conflict.

The economic toll of this campaign is staggering. CNN pegged the cost at nearly $1 billion in just over three weeks, a figure that dwarfs the $200 million in munitions spent during the same period, per The New York Times.

Operating carriers, each with 5,000 personnel and dozens of aircraft add hundreds of millions more. A defense official’s remark to CNN about “resources nearing exhaustion” hints at strain beyond dollars—munitions stocks, particularly long-range missiles, may be dwindling, a concern raised by the Pentagon to Congress, according to The New York Times.

How does this compare historically? The 1991 Gulf War, a triumph of air power, cost $61 billion [adjusted to today’s dollars] over six weeks, but it targeted a conventional army, not a dispersed insurgency. The Saudi campaign in Yemen burned through $100 billion over seven years, with little to show for it. Operation Rough Rider’s pace suggests it could rival these figures if prolonged, especially with global commitments in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific stretching U.S. resources thin.

The broader implications are sobering. The Houthis’ defiance has already disrupted a vital trade route, with 12% of global commerce passing through the Red Sea, per Al Jazeera. Shipping firms like Maersk have abandoned the Suez Canal, doubling transit times and costs.

If air strikes can’t restore stability, and a ground war proves untenable, the U.S. faces a dilemma: escalate or retreat. The group’s resilience could embolden other Iran-backed factions—Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq—to test American resolve elsewhere. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz claimed on ABC that multiple Houthi leaders were killed, but the group’s attacks persist, suggesting a hollow victory.

Reflecting on this, the Houthis may have already won a psychological edge. Surviving the world’s most advanced military for weeks, they’ve projected strength to their base and beyond, much as the Taliban did in Afghanistan. Their ability to dictate terms in the Red Sea, forcing a superpower to spend billions, shifts the narrative from defeat to endurance.

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Bulgarian Military