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Image shows Russia produced 10,000 Shahed-136 drones in 2024.
A downed Shahed-136 drone, marked “Ы 11934,” has surfaced in a striking image, captured by Anadolu Agency and distributed via Getty Images. This drone was part of Russia’s ongoing assault on Kharkiv on December 21, 2024, confirming that the Kremlin’s drone campaign is pushing forward relentlessly.
The numbers don’t lie—if this drone’s serial marking is part of the continuous sequence, Russia’s Shahed production has now hit an alarming milestone of 10,000 units in 2024 alone. Back in February, over 2,600 drones bearing the “Ы” marking had already been reported, signaling a massive uptick in output since the first sightings of the “Ы” series in July 2023.
What’s even more concerning is the pace at which Russia has shifted from using Iranian-made “M” series Shaheds to manufacturing its own variants. The appearance of “K” and “KB” drones in 2023 marked the beginning of domestic production, but these newer models are hard to track now, indicating a shift in strategy or supply chain challenges.
Russia’s Alabuga facility has gone into overdrive, pumping out drones at a speed that’s leaving military analysts scrambling to keep up. What was once a 1,000-per-month pace has now nearly doubled, reaching an alarming rate of 2,000 units per month by the end of 2024.
The surge in production begs the question: How did Russia manage such a leap? While the answer remains murky, one thing is clear—the Kremlin has found a way to turn its Shahed program into a high-output war machine.
And it’s not just about numbers—Russia’s Alabuga complex hit a milestone of 6,000 Shahed drones produced a full year ahead of schedule, an achievement originally set for 2025.
This rapid acceleration in production underscores the stakes, with Ukraine’s Military Intelligence [GUR MOU] now targeting critical production hubs, like their recent successful strike on a key drone component warehouse. Every hit on these facilities is a significant blow to Russian capabilities.
At the beginning of 2024, the hacker group Prana shocked the world by leaking a series of documents and emails, claiming to have stolen information from the Iranian company Sahara Thunder.
These documents shed new light on Russia’s military capabilities, revealing that Moscow is on track to produce up to 10,000 Shahed-136 drones annually, based on technologies acquired from Iran. While the authenticity of the data cannot be fully confirmed, the content suggests serious military ambition from Russia.
The documents, leaked in early February, show that Russian representatives from the Alabuga industrial complex traveled to Iran for negotiations aimed at purchasing key technologies for mass-producing the Shahed-136. In August 2023, the Washington Post revealed that Alabuga played a central role in building the initial 6,000 drones, but the new data points to a plan to significantly ramp up production to 10,000 drones annually.
Among the leaked documents, there are multiple details confirming suspicions that these “Dolphin 636” boats are not ordinary vessels, but drones. The documents mention terms like “avionics,” “jet-assisted takeoff,” and “anti-jamming systems,” which are typical technologies used in UAVs.
Even a slideshow branded with Alabuga shows details describing components characteristic of military drones, such as fuselage and elevons, which would hardly be needed for boats.
If these “boats” are indeed the Shahed-136, they will become a key part of Russia’s strategy for UAV strikes in Ukraine. Producing 10,000 drones annually is a massive goal and would require significant investments in manufacturing capabilities and technology.
This means that Russia is not only expanding its drone army but also paying a higher price for these weapons, which are being used with great intensity on the front lines. If mass production plans are indeed in place, it will have serious strategic consequences for future military operations in the region.
What seemed like a “suspicious” hack by an Iranian-linked group and doubts about the authenticity of leaked documents have quickly morphed into a grim reality—and for Ukraine, a direct threat. Kyiv is now taking the existence of Russian drone production facilities as a serious and imminent danger.
On December 23, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate confirmed that a warehouse in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone—housing crucial components for Iranian-designed Shahed-136 attack drones—was destroyed.
According to the intelligence report, the fire wiped out 65 drone fuselages along with engines, navigation systems, and thermal cameras meant for the assembly of 400 Shahed-136 drones.
The Ukrainian agency estimated the damage at $16 million, calling it “another strike against Russia’s military-industrial complex,” underscoring the continued targeting of Russian drone capabilities.
BulgarianMilitary.com has been unable to independently verify the claims, but earlier strikes on Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, on December 21 caused significant damage to several buildings. However, no reports from local authorities indicated fires or disruptions in Alabuga during or after the attack on December 23.
Ukraine’s long-range drones had already targeted the Alabuga facility in April 2024, along with other sites in Elabuga and Nizhnekamsk. Local reports suggested minimal damage and no major disruptions.
However, a source from Ukraine’s military intelligence confirmed to local media that this most recent attack was a targeted operation by Ukrainian forces, marking a significant escalation in their strategy to disrupt Russia’s drone manufacturing capabilities.
The Shahed-136 drones and their modification Geran-2 in Russian service, are one-way attack UAVs designed for long-range strikes on critical infrastructure and military targets.
Their primary role in the ongoing conflict has been as a low-cost, high-impact weapon, allowing Russia to strike Ukrainian cities, power grids, and defense installations with relative impunity.
With a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, these drones can hit targets deep within enemy territory, complicating air defense operations.
These drones are equipped with a combination of GPS and inertial navigation systems, enabling them to fly precise, pre-programmed routes.
This makes them highly effective at striking high-value targets with minimal deviation. Additionally, Shahed-136 is outfitted with thermal imaging cameras, allowing for precision targeting in low-visibility conditions, including night operations.
While the Shahed-136’s design originated in Iran, Russia has significantly ramped up its domestic production of drones, relying on components sourced both locally and from Iran.
As of recent reports, Russia has integrated its own electronics and guidance systems into the drones, improving reliability and capability. This adaptation has allowed for larger-scale deployment on the battlefield.
A key feature of the Shahed-136 is its electronic warfare capability. The drones are equipped with countermeasures to jam enemy radar and air defense systems, providing a tactical advantage in evading interception.
Their small size and low radar cross-section make them difficult to detect, further increasing their effectiveness against advanced defense systems.
By incorporating Shahed-136 drones into multi-layered attack strategies, Russia has been able to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. These drones are often used in tandem with other missile and UAV strikes, complicating countermeasures and maximizing the chances of hitting critical targets.
As the Russian production capacity increases, these drones are likely to remain a key element in Russia’s aerial combat strategy, presenting a growing challenge for Ukraine’s defense efforts.
Bulgarian Military