Views: 12
Over the past few days, Russian forces have advanced into the eastern part of Vuhledar and likely taken fire control over the last road connecting the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in Vuhledar, which now faces the risk of encirclement. This was reported in a new update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Sep. 24.
ISW analysts noted that Russian troops reached the outskirts of Vuhledar after intensifying their offensive in the area. However, the potential capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to provide any significant operational advantage for further Russian offensive actions in western Donetsk Oblast.
Geolocated footage released on Sep. 24 shows that Russian troops advanced into the eastern part of Vuhledar, up to 13 Desantnykiv Street. This confirms reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources that Russian forces broke into Vuhledar’s eastern districts between Sep. 23 and 24. ISW experts pointed out that Russian forces are also trying to advance on Vuhledar’s northeastern flank through Vodiane and the southwestern flank through Prechystivka, likely attempting to encircle Ukrainian troops in Vuhledar and force a retreat.
The ISW also confirmed the geolocation of footage published on Sep. 24, which indicates that Russian forces, likely from the assault units of the 29th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District, captured the South Donbas mine No. 3 in the western part of Vodiane. This created a salient about five kilometers north of Vuhledar, in the area west of Vodiane.
Several Russian sources claimed that Russian troops have fire control (i.e., the ability to conduct artillery fire at close range to hinder movement) over road C-051134, the Vuhledar-Bohoyavlenka route, which is reportedly the last supply route for Ukrainian forces in Vuhledar. On Sep. 23 and 24, Western media, as well as Ukrainian military experts and journalists, widely warned that ongoing Russian attacks on Vuhledar’s flanks could result in the encirclement of the Ukrainian garrison, potentially forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat from the area, which has been a key Ukrainian stronghold for over two years.
The ISW suggested that Russian forces may indeed be capable of capturing all of Vuhledar. However, how quickly or easily they can do so will likely depend, at least in part, on Ukraine’s decisions. If Ukrainian command determines that the risk of encirclement or the cost of defending the town in urban combat is too high, they may order a retreat, allowing Russian forces to take Vuhledar relatively quickly and without close combat. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces could choose to defend the town and block Russia’s attempts to encircle it. In that case, the battle for Vuhledar, which Ukrainian forces have been fortifying for over two years, could prove challenging for the Russians.
If Russian forces fail to capture Vuhledar quickly, their maneuver operations along the town’s flanks may also suffer due to the onset of autumn rains, which would complicate Russian advances through the predominantly rural and agricultural terrain around Vuhledar. Even Russian military bloggers have acknowledged that Ukrainian fortifications in Vuhledar and the surrounding terrain are significant obstacles to Russia’s progress, both in previous offensives and during the current wave of attacks.
Russia has previously made at least two major attempts to seize Vuhledar, including in late 2022 and early 2023, both of which resulted in heavy losses of personnel and equipment while allowing Ukrainian forces to further strengthen the town’s defenses. Since 2022, Russia has deployed units from the Eastern Military District in the area, including the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, while Ukrainian forces defending Vuhledar likely gained valuable experience observing how these Russian formations operate.
Even if Russia manages to capture Vuhledar, it’s unlikely to significantly change the course of Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, ISW analysts say. Vuhledar isn’t a particularly crucial logistical hub, and Russian forces already control most of the main roads through the town, including road T0509 (Vuhledar-Prechystivka), road C050524 (Pavlivka-Vuhledar), and road T0524 (Vuhledar-Marinka). They have also reportedly gained fire control over road C051134 in Bohoyavlenka. Therefore, capturing Vuhledar won’t grant Russian forces immediate access to new routes they don’t already control. Ukraine’s loss of the town won’t sever Ukrainian forces from other critical supply lines.
Additionally, taking Vuhledar won’t necessarily provide Russian forces with an advantageous position to launch further offensives in Donetsk Oblast. Vuhledar is located 23 kilometers south of the N-15 highway, which runs from Donetsk to the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border areas. The terrain between Vuhledar and the highway consists mostly of open fields, which would require successful mechanized assaults through areas that could soon become unsuitable for rapid advances due to autumn weather conditions.
Vuhledar also sits about 30 kilometers south of the southeastern outskirts of Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are prioritizing their offensive. Any support for this offensive from Vuhledar would require Russian forces to maneuver over 30 kilometers of open ground. ISW previously assessed that Russian operations near Vuhledar and Pokrovsk are complementary, aimed at stretching Ukrainian forces along a broader front in Donetsk Oblast. However, capturing Vuhledar alone may not be significant enough to achieve that goal, ISW stressed.
