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Bulgarian military
India’s progress on its fifth-generation fighter program, known as the AMCA, is falling behind, causing growing concern in New Delhi. Recent reports from Pakistan have added to the urgency. Islamabad is now training its pilots to operate China’s FC-31 stealth fighter, prompting Indian authorities to recommend that Parliament’s defense committee consider purchasing fifth-generation fighters from foreign suppliers as a temporary solution.
Indian military analysts identify only two potential sources for these advanced fighters: Russia and the US. This decision places New Delhi in a difficult position. The challenge isn’t solely due to delays in India’s own fighter development, but also because of lingering geopolitical complexities and “older transgressions.”
India’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 system has complicated its defense landscape. Sources indicate that while the S-400 tilts military favor toward Russia’s Su-57 Felon fighter jet, this aircraft doesn’t have the best reputation in India. Despite interest in the F-35, India is wary of facing restrictions similar to those imposed on Turkey. Currently, India has secured three S-400 batteries and is waiting on two more, with delivery delays expected due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
There are solutions
For India to proceed with acquiring the F-35, one potential solution might be to deactivate the existing S-400 systems within its air defense network and progressively replace them with American Patriot missiles. This approach could ease U.S. concerns.
Not all hope is lost, as some analysts suggest. Deploying the F-35s away from sensitive border regions, where the S-400 systems are stationed, could be a workaround. However, India still faces the uncertainty of U.S. political dynamics—particularly the upcoming 2025 elections. Ultimately, the decision hinges on the political climate and the willingness of the U.S. administration to offer concessions.
But are these aspirations realistic for the Indians? According to prevailing logic, the U.S. wouldn’t approve the F-35 for India unless the S-400 systems were deactivated. However, could the U.S. make an exception for a valued ally with a robust economy? Granting this exception to India would be a challenging decision for Washington. Ignoring India’s S-400 purchase could exacerbate the strained relationship with Turkey, just as Ankara is beginning to rebuild trust in Washington.
S-400 as an advantage for Russia
And what about the Su-57? India initially partnered with Russia on this project but quickly withdrew its involvement, dissatisfied with the engine’s performance at the time and the jet’s subpar stealth capabilities. Russia, however, asserts that starting in 2024, the Su-57 will be equipped with the advanced Izdeliye 30 engine, which more than meets India’s requirements, coupled with significantly enhanced stealth features.
Let’s not overlook Russia’s claims that the Su-57 is involved in the conflict with Ukraine, albeit from a distance. While these assertions still need verification, some Western media have echoed these statements, potentially enhancing the allure of a future deal between Russia and the Indian government.
However, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising tensions between Iran and Israel are casting a shadow over Moscow’s plans. Reports from Israeli and Western media suggest that the F-35 is increasingly being used in combat missions, which could tarnish the image of Russia’s Su-57, previously touted as the “only stealth fighter with combat experience.”
More complex decision
This situation highlights the urgent need for India to ramp up its indigenous fighter development program while also exploring interim solutions. The escalating threat from Pakistan necessitates a thorough and well-rounded strategy to preserve India’s air superiority.
The decision between the Su-57 and the F-35 could become even more complex for India. The deeper we explore the details of the F-35, the less attractive it seems for India. The F-35 demands a completely new supply chain for parts, weapons, and maintenance, all of which would likely need to be sourced from the United States. This dependency could end up being more costly than simply procuring the S-400.
Finally, the US has the leverage to halt India’s access to crucial F-35 components at any moment. This could be triggered for various reasons, such as pressuring India to refrain from investing in Russian military gear with a warning like, “If you keep buying Russian military equipment, you won’t get F-35 parts.”
In summary, could the F-35 become India’s go-to stealth fighter? While anything is possible, it’s currently unlikely. For now, the S-400 stands out as a more viable option than the F-35. Especially considering India already boasts top-tier fighters, such as the French Dassault Rafale and Su-30MKI. These aircraft are well-equipped to counter perceived threats, including the “Pakistani” FC-31s.