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BULGARIAN MILITARY
The current reality for Ukraine’s Air Force is this: even if allies wished to send all 80 F-16 fighters immediately, it’s simply not feasible. According to The Telegraph, only six Ukrainian pilots have been trained to fly these aircraft by NATO’s European members. This means, at present, the Ukrainian Air Force can only operate three fighters, with two pilots assigned per aircraft.
Looking ahead, there’s a glimmer of hope that by year’s end, Ukraine could have up to ten F-16s operational. The uncertainty lies in how many Ukrainian pilots have completed their training in the US. This year, training programs in the US, Netherlands, and Denmark aimed to prepare 20 Ukrainian pilots. However, the number of those who have finished their training in the US remains unclear.
The shortage of trained pilots is a harsh reality. Originally requested in 2022, promised for 2023, and anticipated in 2024, the F-16 fighters are expected to arrive in only two batches. With the slow pace of training and a shortage of pilots—an issue that’s becoming increasingly obvious—the first group of fighters could be destroyed by the time the second group is ready. It’s a vicious cycle.
According to The New York Times, both Ukrainian and U.S. Military officials have identified the limited number of F-16 capable pilots as a major obstacle. Additionally, a substantial number of trained support staff is necessary. “It’s not just about the pilots,” said Gen. Charles Brown Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former F-16 pilot, in June. “Service and technician training also play a critical role.”
Officials have assured Ukraine of at least one squadron of F-16s [totaling 20 aircraft] by 2024, although the actual number may be lower, according to The Telegraph. As reported by The Washington Post, citing Ukrainian and Western officials, there are not enough trained pilots to tilt the balance in Ukraine’s favor, and the planes won’t be ready for immediate frontline deployment.
The primary reason is that Ukrainian commanders plan to use the F-16s defensively. With Russia maintaining air superiority and establishing robust air defense systems along the front lines, deploying these jets close to enemy territory would be too dangerous. “We will not use it too close to the Russians,” a Ukrainian official explained to The Washington Post, highlighting the ongoing air defense threat.
In a recent interview with The Telegraph, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Sirsky, declined to specify the arrival date and quantity of F-16s heading to Ukraine, citing security reasons. He emphasized that these aircraft would bolster Ukraine’s air defenses, enhance their ability to counter Russian cruise missiles and enable more precise ground attacks. However, Sirsky admitted that the F-16’s capabilities have limitations. He stated they must be positioned “40 kilometers or more” from the front lines to avoid destruction.
There’s an indication of a “slight cooling” in relations between Kyiv and Washington. According to reports, this stems from a phone call between Moscow and Washington, where Russia alerted the U.S. about a covert Ukrainian operation on Russian territory, which could escalate the conflict significantly. The U.S., alarmed and angered, reportedly ordered Kyiv to abort the mission, as noted by The Telegraph.
Ukraine faces a significant challenge beyond just the lack of F-16s. It’s not just that there are supposedly only three F-16s available this year; Russian targeted attacks are another major issue. Since 2022, and continuing into 2023 and 2024, experts consistently voice the same concern: Ukraine’s runways are at risk. Russian warplanes continuously strike Ukrainian infrastructure, making it difficult for Kyiv to build or maintain clean runways for F-16s.
On the ground, the situation is complex and not entirely favorable for either side. While Ukraine struggles, observers and experts note that the Russian Army is making progress in capturing new territories.
Conversely, this news might not completely thrill pro-Russian analysts. Despite a year-long shortage of systems and ammunition in Ukraine, Russian advancements have been slow, oftentimes progressing only inches. This so-called “Russian progress” on the Ukrainian front can be deemed a failure. Much of this stems from Ukraine’s robust defense strategies, which frequently involve the utilization of drones. Even several Russian bloggers have acknowledged the formidable nature of the Ukrainian resistance.