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TBI’s Elections Explained series examines the key issues and potential impacts of globally significant polls.
After a generation of democracy and three decades on from the dismantling of apartheid, South Africa’s upcoming national election shows all the promise of a flourishing democratic system. The election result, expected to force the African National Congress (ANC) into a coalition, marks a tectonic shift in the political landscape by introducing new players and nodes of leverage, that will in turn shape what has thus far been a consistent national and regional political landscape.
For the first time, a budding competitiveness in the political order means that the ruling ANC might lose its parliamentary majority. This comes after years of crippling economic stagnation, an electricity crisis, fracturing social cohesion and soaring violent crime. The voters will have their say, but what does this really mean for the region’s economic and political behemoth?
The Political Powerplay
Few political parties have wielded the enormous political capital that the ANC has since the 1990s. Fewer yet have as little to show for it. At its height, under the leadership of Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, the ANC saw its best days. Today, patronage and factionalism have hollowed out the party and damaged its credibility. Polls suggest that the ruling party will capture around 40 per cent of the vote, down from 57.5 per cent in 2019 and 62.2 per cent in 2014.
Factionalism within the ANC remains its biggest challenge, playing out along the lines of two chief factions:
The Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction, associated with figures like former President Jacob Zuma, hinges on entrenched networks of patronage. While in power, until 2018, the RET pushed the party closer to Russia, and at home, moved to consolidate power within the political economy.The second faction, represented by President Ramaphosa, has a more moderate agenda and signals a balanced approach to international relations. The direction of the ANC, and its coalition strategy, will in part be decided by factional powerplays.
The ANC’s self-defeating path has inadvertently injected a new dynamism into national politics. There are the established players hoping to make inroads, including the official opposition, Democratic Alliance (DA). The populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), with their radical and militant economic reform agenda, expect to capitalise on the frustrations of South Africans who bemoan the ANC’s failures on redistribution. The newest player, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) – meaning “spear of the nation” – draws its name from the ANC’s paramilitary wing during the anti-apartheid struggle. Controversial Former President Zuma has been barred from campaigning with MK – a win for the ANC – yet, the party might still win big in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, capturing votes from the ANC and the traditionally Zulu-aligned Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). Finally, some smaller parties, including ActionSA and RISE Mzansi – on the centre-right and centre-left respectively – envision social and economic transformation akin to, but apart from, the ANC, appealing to young urban voters, many born after 1994.
This election will signal whether an appetite for a radical populist agenda is growing, as characterised by the EFF, or if citizens crave a moderate-leaning conservative party, such as the DA, and to what extent some voters are stirred by MK’s notions of an ethnostate.
Policy Predictability or a Fundamental Shift?
Since 1994, the ANC has, if not on paper then in practice, driven a centre-left agenda underpinned by a blend of government jobs for the black middle class, social welfare for the urban and rural poor, and for the emerging black elite, employment equity and Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment – a scheme to pressure and encourage government and industry to increase black economic participation.
As power shifts between factions within the party, so too does emphasis on either growth or redistribution. Despite widespread criticism across implementation and results, this balancing act between the two fundamental poles of ANC policy has allowed for continuity and predictability.
Now, the policy continuum is on the cusp of both widening and shifting. If the ANC wins a parliamentary majority, things might stay the same for a while, but the ANC old guard will, over the next decade, be replaced by younger members whose policy leanings are likely to drive the party towards a more left, socialist agenda.
In a coalition outcome, the ANC will have two choices: the EFF or the DA.
With the EFF, we can expect more assertive political rhetoric on redistribution and the ANC will be forced to concede on its preference for a market-led approach to economic policymaking. This might also reduce the influence of the private sector on policymaking. In this scenario, the ANC will alienate some of its moderate voter base but cause less of a stir among voters than a DA coalition.
A coalition with the official opposition and longtime rival, the DA, would strengthen the neoliberal influence in policymaking and bring the private sector further into the fold. More pragmatic elements of the DA voter base are likely to view a coalition as a stepping stone towards progressing their policies.
In either scenario, the undercurrents of policymaking will drive a widening of the band within which choices are made, and at the same time, create momentum for the dial to move further left, which will be difficult to turn back, or closer to the centre.
Regardless of the outcome, this election signifies a shift. New players and policy directions will emerge, impacting both domestic and international spheres. South Africa’s ability to navigate this crossroads will determine the suite of options to manage its mounting domestic challenges as well as its trajectory as a regional leader and global voice. Pinned to this is a pertinent question: is the ANC’s diminishing political capital irreversible, and ultimately, has the ruling party crossed the Rubicon?