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Emmanuel Macron held talks with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in Kyiv on Tuesday amid confusion over French claims that Russia has privately agreed not to carry out any new “military initiatives”.
French officials made the suggestion after six hours of talks late on Monday between Macron and Vladimir Putin. The officials, speaking anonymously, said Putin had agreed to pull Russian troops out of Belarus once military exercises conclude later this month.
But there was no confirmation from the Kremlin of what would in effect amount to a climbdown from the Russian side after months of deliberate pressure on Ukraine. Putin did not confirm the reports in his comments to the media in Moscow.
In a call with reporters on Tuesday, Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, denied that Putin had made a deal with Macron to de-escalate. “This is wrong in its essence. Moscow and Paris couldn’t do any deals. It’s simply impossible,” Peskov said, insinuating that it would be pointless to make a deal with France.
Peskov added: “France is a leading country in the EU, France is a member of Nato, but Paris is not the leader there. In this bloc, a very different country is in charge. So what deals can we talk about?”
He confirmed that Russian troops would exit Belarus at the end of joint exercises on 20 February, claiming this had always been the plan.
There was concern in Kyiv over a briefing that Macron appears to have given to French journalists travelling on his plane in which he suggested “Finlandising” Ukraine might resolve the crisis. The term Findlandisation refers to Helsinki’s non-aligned status during the cold war.
According to Le Figaro, Macron mused that keeping Ukraine out of Nato could be a suitable idea. It is unclear if this plan was discussed with Putin on Monday, or if the Élysée consulted with the US, other western allies and the Ukrainians in advance.
France TV Info said Macron was responding to a question from a journalist about Finlandisation. He was not actively pushing this model and did not think it would solve the crisis, it reported.
The Biden administration has rejected Putin’s demand that Nato rule out membership for Ukraine. In the same briefing, Macron told the French press there could be no compromises on Ukraine’s sovereignty or a return to spheres of influence – an assertion at odds with the Finlandisation idea.
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said his government was not prepared to ditch its long-held red lines. These include Ukraine’s right to make its own security choices and its refusal to hold negotiations with Moscow-backed separatists. “No one will be able to force us to cross them,” he said on Tuesday.
Kuleba said he was “looking forward” to meeting his French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in Kyiv and to discussing the “signals” brought by Macron from Moscow.
The French officials said that during the talks Macron had agreed to “open dialogue on strategic questions”, but there were no details on what that dialogue might involve.
Macron is the most senior western leader to meet Putin since Moscow began massing troops last autumn near Ukraine. The Kremlin has deployed 135,000 soldiers around Ukraine’s borders and will begin major military exercises on Thursday in Belarus, within striking distance of Kyiv. These are due to finish on 20 February.
Even if the Kremlin does then withdraw tactical battalions from Belarus, it is unclear if they would return to their bases in the far-east of Russia or remain closer to Ukraine.
Western states have been saying for the past weeks that they fear Russia is preparing to invade. Putin denies this but has previously said he could take “military-technical measures” if his security demands are not met. He wants Nato to return to its 1997 levels of deployment and to pull out of central and eastern Europe.
Speaking alongside Macron in the Kremlin, Putin claimed that if Ukraine joined Nato in future, it would inevitably lead to conflict between Nato and Russia, given Ukraine’s claims on Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
“Ask your readers, viewers, internet users: do you want France to fight with Russia? But that’s the way it will be,” said Putin, angrily lecturing a French journalist.