A White House meeting between Japan’s Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi and US President Donald Trump was meant to be a routine show of unity – not a stress test, as it’s now become.
The two leaders were hoping to build on momentum from Trump’s recent visit to Tokyo that framed the US–Japan alliance as entering a “golden era.”
For Takaichi, it was also a chance to demonstrate credibility on defense and security. Trump leaned into the symbolism, praising Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister and striking a familiar tone of personal diplomacy, telling her to “just call” if she needed anything.
But in recent days, the tone of this upcoming meeting has shifted dramatically.
The US-Israeli war with Iran has exposed Japan’s fundamental vulnerability in national security – energy dependence. Japan imports more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, a reliance that deepened after it sharply reduced imports of Russian energy following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Disruption in the Gulf region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s oil supply passes, immediately reverberates through Japan’s economy.
Fuel prices have already climbed to multi-year highs, with average prices hitting 190.9 yen ($1.20) per liter this week, with broader inflationary pressure expected to follow. While Japan has maintained strategic oil reserves equivalent to more than 254 days of consumption, Tokyo has already begun tapping those reserves to stabilize supply, prices, and public sentiment.
At the same time, pressure from Washington is mounting.
Trump has called on US allies, including Japan, to send warships to help escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is regularly attacking ships. Yet his messaging has been anything but consistent. At times urging cooperation, at others suggesting that allies should shoulder the burden themselves. The reversals have created uncertainty in Tokyo, where officials are now trying to interpret, what will Trump say next? And what he will say when he meets Takaichi?
In practical terms, Japan is unlikely to commit combat forces. Japan’s pacifist postwar constitution imposes strict limits on the use of force. While successive governments have reinterpreted those constraints, allowing for limited collective self-defense under certain conditions, any meaningful military involvement in a US-led conflict would face steep legal and political barriers. Parliamentary approval would be required. Public support might not exist.
But simply citing Japan’s legal limitations won’t appease Trump, Jeffrey Kingston, a professor of Asian Studies at Tokyo’s Temple University, told CNN.
“Trump will ask, ‘Are you with us or against us? Are you our deputy sheriff in Asia or not?’” Kingston said.
“The last thing she wants is a Starmer scenario,” he added, referring to Trump’s berating of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for not jumping to assist the US with its war.
For Takaichi, the dilemma is acute. Japan’s security environment is arguably its most severe in decades, with China asserting itself militarily, North Korea advancing its missile program and Russia maintaining pressure in the region. The US security umbrella remains indispensable.
At the same time, domestic political realities loom, too. There is little public appetite for entanglement in a Middle Eastern conflict, particularly one that could expose Japanese shipping, infrastructure or citizens to retaliation.
Takaichi herself has acknowledged those risks, warning in parliament that involvement could make Japan a target for terrorism and emphasizing the need for a “shrewd foreign policy” grounded in national interest.
There is also a longer diplomatic history with Iran to consider.
Japan has maintained relatively stable relations with Iran for decades, driven largely by energy needs. In 2019, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe became the first Japanese leader in over 40 years to visit Tehran, meeting the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an effort to mediate between Washington and Tehran. The initiative ultimately failed, but it underscored Japan’s unique relationship with a US enemy.
What, then, can Japan offer Trump?
Support is expected to fall short of direct military involvement. But it could be logistical or financial.
Japan said it’s exploring legally permissible options, which could mean intelligence or surveillance operations, similar to its deployment of a Maritime Self-Defense Force vessel to monitor shipping lanes near the Strait of Hormuz in 2020.
Financially, Japan is expected to announce a new round of investments as part of the $550 billion deal it’s already signed with the US. These will likely increase cooperation in nuclear energy, liquefied natural gas and potentially develop crude oil production in Alaska. That will be key for the US during its war with Iran.
Tokyo is also expected to inform Washington that it intends to join the “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative, potentially helping with missile production due to the Middle East war. In fact, late last year, Japan exported a batch of surface-to-air Patriot missiles built under license to the US. It was a historic break from its long-held ban on lethal weapons exports.
That domestic tension over Japan’s postwar pacifism surfaced in parliament this week, when an opposition lawmaker questioned Takaichi’s push to loosen restrictions on arms exports. Her reply was brief, but telling: “Times have changed.”
As security concerns rise and its closest ally beats the drum of war, Japan faces a stark choice of adapting quickly, or risk straining ties with Washington.
*CNN*
