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Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk offers possibilities and difficulties

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A Russian tank captured by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Image via Roman Pilipey | Wikimedia Commons)

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing grim decisions following a Ukrainian offensive that may result in him bombing his own citizens, writes Patrick Drennan.

ON 7 AUGUST, Ukrainian forces launched an infantry assault nine miles across the Russian border. It was aimed at the Sudzha gas hub — the only point of entry for Russian gas into the European Union (it also supplies Ukraine).

This diversionary attack has several purposes. It is a show of strength that exposes the vulnerability of Russia and President Putin. Ukraine can use the captured territory as a future bargaining chip in peace negotiations. Also, it will draw in thousands of Russian troops, equipment and planes from other crucial areas so they can be destroyed by Ukrainian drones and missiles.

How has President Putin reacted?

He has ordered the roughly 180,000 residents to evacuate the region. They were offered 10,000 rubles (about AU$166) each to do so. Some Russian soldiers have been pictured on social media already looting their abandoned homes and businesses. As you can imagine, not all the inhabitants have complied.

The Kursk citizens are not unfriendly to Ukraine. Ukrainians have been in this area since World War I and many residents have Ukrainian relatives.

Putin then appointed his old KGB crony Alexander Bortnikov head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), to be in command of the operation. Putin’s former bodyguard, Alexei Dyumin, was put in charge on the ground. Thus, the counterattack against the Ukrainians is being spearheaded by the FSB, not the Russian military who actively dislikes and distrusts the FSB.

Putin has also redeployed additional military forces to Kursk — more than 20,000 personnel overall. This includes an elite regiment of paratroopers from the Zaporizhzhia Oblast but mainly comprises a scratch force of conscripts, engineers and Chechens. The Russians are focused on slowing down the Ukrainians and not stopping them yet until heavy equipment can arrive via road and rail. It’s time-consuming to move heavy equipment.

Most of these units have dysfunctional communication systems and rely on social media platforms like Telegram to communicate with each other. The arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in Paris has not changed this situation — yet.

While the Russian forces match the Ukrainian assault force in size, it may not be large enough to reclaim the lost territory, now that the Ukrainians have dug in. The military maxim, rooted in operations research, states that an attacking force should have a three-to-one advantage over a defending force. Apparently, they have been given 1 October as the latest date to achieve this formidable goal.

Therefore, the future possibilities favour Ukraine.

On the other hand, Putin, trying to appear nonchalant about the situation to the Russian public, has difficult decisions to make.

Ukraine has dug in around the Kursk towns of TyotkinoSudzha (nearby important gas hub) and Korenevo (busy railway station). They all have populations of around 5,000 Russian citizens.

It leaves Putin with the unfortunate choice of bombing these towns, destroying their infrastructure and killing Russian citizens. He has hesitated to date but ultimately may have no choice.

Russia uses a variety of missiles to attack Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, including Kh-55 cruise missilesIskander-1000 ballistic missiles and erratic North Korean KN-23 missiles, However powerful these weapons are, they are not all that accurate and could result in friendly-fire scenarios in Kursk.

Putin may threaten, yet again, to use tactical nuclear weapons, or even to get his reluctant ally in Belarus to become involved.

The less palatable, but more likely decision will be to increase national conscription again, as he did in March and grow his army by another 150,000 conscripts. Putin could justify this by declaring the August incursion as a direct attack on Russia by NATO. However, general conscription will not be well received in his power bases of Moscow and St Petersburg — so far relatively insulated from the horrors of this unrelenting war. It could lead to his overthrow.

Some military analysts in the West are urging NATO, particularly the United States, to give Ukraine permission to strike deep into Russia using powerful NATO weapons — currently restricted. They need to be wary. Nobody will benefit from Putin’s violent overthrow resulting in a large-scale civil war in Russia. Many of the 21 republics that comprise the Russian Federation are nuclear-capable.

Independent Australia

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