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Ukraine Is Running Out of Time for a Counterattack.
Absent an offensive victory, things don’t look very bright for Kyiv.
As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its fourth year, the Kremlin’s approach to the conflict has become increasingly clear: it is pursuing a piecemeal attritional strategy with the aim of capturing as much Ukrainian territory as possible.
Consequently, the Russian military has been throwing hundreds of thousands of men and tens of thousands of heavy weapon systems against the Ukrainian defenses in several parts of the contact line. As a result, Russian forces have been making slow but steady progress.
But the Ukrainians haven’t been sitting idle. On the contrary, the Ukrainian military maintains tactical, operational, and strategic pressure on the Russian forces all along the line of battle.
Strategic and Tactical Strikes
“Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries in Russia on the night of January 20 to 21 as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest estimate of the conflict.
The Ukrainian military and intelligence services have landed some impressive hits against military targets inside Russia. Kyiv mainly targets ammunition depots, air bases, and the military industry.
Besides the psychological effect, these attacks have military consequences. For example, a few months ago, Ukrainian drones struck a series of ammunition depots inside Russia. The concomitant explosions were so powerful that small earthquakes ensued.